Tue, Mar 27, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 115 | 27 | 19 | 431 |
| OTT | 28 | 013 | 115 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P1 12:54OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 14:49OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:23NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 18:42NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Tanner Fritz, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 15:26OTTBobby RyanAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 17:57NYIAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Thomas Hickey, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:51NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:14OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:01OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:01NYIDennis Seidenberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02OTTRyan Dzingel: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:51NYIChris Wagner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:20
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Wagner – Johnston9:26
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz10:17
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:43
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Mayfield12:19
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Davidson – Pelech14:50
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock17:07
xG 0.52–1.27 (29%)attempts 15–26goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Hoffman – Pageau9:50
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Smith – Paajarvi9:25
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel13:46
xG 0.90–0.78 (54%)attempts 20–19goals 2–1
- Sexton – McCormick – Chlapik6:18
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Wolanin6:28
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin3:53
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot16:17
xG 0.87–0.78 (53%)attempts 21–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).