Tue, Mar 27, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 06 | 112 | 224 |
| DET | 110 | 210 | 26 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 16:43DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Darren Helm, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:28DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Martin Frk, Joe Hicketts · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:09DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Nick Jensen, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 6:21DETDarren HelmAssists: Dylan Larkin, Joe Hicketts · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 16:44PITKris LetangAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:32DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Trevor Daley, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:44PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:46DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:39PITJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:06DETTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel8:28
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel4:31
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hagelin – Rust3:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Sheary – Aston-Reese3:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin3:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta2:21
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Ruhwedel3:57
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou6:55
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Frk – Svechnikov4:29
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi11:10
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:37
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 5–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen11:51
xG 0.35–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hicketts11:38
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Jensen2:47
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).