Tue, Mar 27, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 18 | 014 | 00 | 233 |
| DAL | 110 | 15 | 06 | 12 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50DALRadek FaksaAssists: Antoine Roussel, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 16:51PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:03PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 10:11DALBrett RitchiePPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:40DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:22PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:31DALKari Lehtonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:52PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DALMattias Janmark: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13DALStephen Johns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Simmonds – Weal6:58
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:59
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Lehtera – Weal2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton4:56
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas16:09
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov15:58
xG 0.95–0.62 (60%)attempts 20–19goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Sanheim14:21
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ritchie – Shore – Janmark7:07
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa13:38
xG 0.58–0.61 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin13:39
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark2:06
xG 0.01–0.21 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:45
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Methot – Honka3:19
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Johns11:49
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).