Wed, Mar 28, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 215 | 113 | 04 | 332 |
| VGK | 15 | 111 | 013 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Christian Dvorak, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 11:23VGKErik HaulaAssists: James Neal · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 17:09ARIRichard PanikAssists: Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:44VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 15:43ARIKevin ConnautonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:19VGKCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:22ARIDylan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:23VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:52ARIRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P2 14:04ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24ARIBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:26ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:29VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Domi – Dvorak8:39
xG 0.88–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller11:05
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Perlini – Fischer – Strome8:46
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:28
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Murphy9:29
xG 0.86–0.16 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:15
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Connauton2:28
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Tuch11:08
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Tatar – Haula10:52
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Reaves – Eakin – Lindberg7:12
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Bellemare – Nosek9:22
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller14:53
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt2:06
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Theodore2:05
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).