Thu, Mar 29, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 26 | 010 | 02 | 226 |
| OTT | 010 | 112 | 15 | 13 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:24OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mike Hoffman, Tom Pyatt · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:19FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jamie McGinn, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 6:50FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:16OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Zack Smith, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:44OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:35OTTMax McCormick: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:35OTTAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:16FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:44FLAMike Matheson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Vatrano – Malgin – Borgstrom7:37
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – McCann8:49
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:01
xG 0.13–0.44 (24%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- McGinn – Trocheck – Huberdeau14:17
xG 0.18–0.73 (20%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad17:04
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Weegar12:37
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson18:45
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 19–17goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Paajarvi – White10:53
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau13:07
xG 0.58–0.33 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Burrows – McCormick – Chlapik6:45
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel11:29
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci10:45
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Chabot14:51
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Claesson – Ceci3:33
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).