Fri, Mar 30, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 215 | 522 | 750 |
| NYR | 18 | 010 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:15TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: J.T. Miller, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:33TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 0:35TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
- P3 1:53TBLCedric PaquetteGWGAssists: Cory Conacher, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 2:38TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 8:14NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
- P3 16:31NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 18:16TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–3
- P3 19:26TBLDan GirardiPPAssists: Cedric Paquette, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.27 xG7–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 16:53TBLSteven Stamkos: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NYRPavel Buchnevich: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:31TBLDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:04NYRNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 12:33TBLJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:57NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:16NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:16TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:05TBLChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:44NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Palat – Cirelli10:08
xG 1.42–0.27 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Conacher – Paquette10:55
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point7:02
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller9:34
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman16:25
xG 2.15–0.47 (82%)attempts 28–11goals 3–1
- Coburn – Sergachev11:48
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:43
xG 0.68–1.09 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Chytil9:50
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Namestnikov – Buchnevich5:09
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:48
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Spooner – Vesey – Andersson11:33
xG 0.32–1.16 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Pionk16:37
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Sproul – Gilmour10:52
xG 0.68–1.21 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- O'Gara – Skjei15:03
xG 0.57–1.61 (26%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).