Fri, Mar 30, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 29 | 07 | 18 | 00 | 324 |
| VGK | 26 | 110 | 09 | 11 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alexander Steen, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:18VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 13:31VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alex Tuch, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 16:09STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:35VGKJames NealAssists: Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 6:14STLChris ThorburnAssists: Scottie Upshall, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 0:22VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:07VGKErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:23VGKMalcolm Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:12STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Upshall – Sundqvist5:25
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:47
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund13:22
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev11:48
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko4:41
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn14:47
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson20:39
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Tuch17:36
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Neal – Tatar – Haula11:41
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Bellemare2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Eakin – Lindberg6:33
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore17:45
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:19
xG 0.73–0.54 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Miller – Theodore2:16
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).