Sat, Mar 31, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 111 | 17 | 330 |
| NJD | 115 | 310 | 010 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15NYITanner FritzAssists: Brandon Davidson, John Tavares · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 7:54NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Blake Coleman, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 0:41NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Will Butcher, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:08NJDTaylor HallAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 13:19NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 18:58NJDBlake ColemanSHGWGAssists: Mirco Mueller, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 16:21NYIChris WagnerAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:11NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:22NJDPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:28NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wagner won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Lee – Fritz3:22
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal2:47
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Wagner2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Davidson – Pelech6:31
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech5:48
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Davidson – Mayfield3:22
xG 0.03–0.23 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Noesen10:15
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier11:14
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Hall – Hischier3:00
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Gibbons – Wood5:54
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Mueller11:07
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen18:54
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Severson2:14
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).