Sat, Mar 31, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 0, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 08 | 015 | 034 |
| ARI | 112 | 311 | 210 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59ARILuke SchennGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Max Domi · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:51ARIRichard PanikAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 15:09ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Richard Panik, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 19:40ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Brad Richardson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 11:59ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Max Domi, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 17:40ARIZac RinaldoAssists: Max Domi, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:53STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:42ARILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:42STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:27STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44ARIDerek Stepan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:44STLDmitrij Jaskin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:35ARILuke Schenn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:40
xG 0.78–0.14 (84%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund6:25
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev7:25
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Sundqvist3:30
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson14:11
xG 0.97–0.46 (68%)attempts 20–11goals 0–3
- Parayko – Dunn10:22
xG 0.95–0.45 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Pietrangelo2:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Keller11:18
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:21
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Archibald – Perlini – Fischer8:26
xG 0.46–0.79 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Domi – Strome12:11
xG 0.31–0.82 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun15:30
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Connauton – Chychrun2:00
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Connauton2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).