Tue, Apr 3, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 28 | 17 | 16 | 421 |
| CGY | 08 | 117 | 018 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48ARIRichard PanikAssists: Kevin Connauton, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:39ARIKevin ConnautonGWGAssists: Max Domi, Trevor Murphy · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 2:18ARIChristian FischerAssists: Josh Archibald, Brendan Perlini · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 4:32CGYNicholas ShoreAssists: Curtis Lazar, Matt Bartkowski · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 12:50ARIDylan StromeAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:11CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:55CGYNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:13CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:07CGYGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:41ARINick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Keller13:14
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:47
xG 0.47–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Archibald – Perlini – Fischer9:33
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Domi – Strome9:50
xG 0.14–0.64 (18%)attempts 7–20goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Schenn5:38
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun4:27
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Connauton4:51
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Jankowski – Hathaway6:35
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Bennett – Foo13:48
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Ferland – Shore – Lazar10:09
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Frolik – Backlund11:40
xG 0.28–0.51 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak12:48
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 0–3
- Giordano – Hamilton20:14
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Andersson12:54
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).