Wed, Apr 4, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 17 | 211 | 426 |
| STL | 114 | 215 | 05 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:57CHIAndreas MartinsenAssists: Artem Anisimov, Dylan Sikura · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:47STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vince Dunn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 5:44STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 10:12CHIBlake HillmanSHAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 8:30CHIAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 19:51CHIDuncan KeithPPGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:26CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:58STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:15CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:00STLChris Butler: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Jurco – Martinsen11:32
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Ejdsell9:37
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Sharp – Hinostroza – Kampf9:19
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz12:54
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rutta2:16
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:40
xG 0.48–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta2:37
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:46
xG 1.04–0.43 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Sobotka – Sundqvist – Barbashev2:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund11:15
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Sundqvist – Barbashev5:17
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson7:35
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn9:28
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko9:21
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).