Thu, Apr 5, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 211 | 113 | 333 |
| EDM | 18 | 013 | 312 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Ty Rattie, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 2:00VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:47VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:49EDMMatt BenningAssists: Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:07EDMMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
- P3 13:15EDMTy RattieGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 14:37VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 10:45VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17EDMMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P3 3:13VGKErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:46VGKDeryk Engelland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:12EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Carpenter – Bellemare8:08
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare2:32
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lindberg – Nosek7:30
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Karlsson – Tuch11:06
xG 0.45–0.85 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb2:39
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:11
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud2:16
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Strome – Caggiula9:33
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Khaira – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi13:05
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Kassian – Slepyshev10:07
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:51
xG 0.90–0.97 (48%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse18:25
xG 1.50–0.60 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Russell – Bear15:35
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Lowe – Benning12:04
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).