Thu, Apr 5, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 09 | 29 | 225 |
| SJS | 111 | 013 | 312 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58SJSJustin BraunAssists: Logan Couture, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 4:43COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 6:00SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 10:14SJSJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 13:06COLBlake ComeauAssists: David Warsofsky, Matt Nieto · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:58SJSTomas HertlENUnassisted · Snap, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:59COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:50SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Compher4:36
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto11:38
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost11:08
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:11
xG 0.69–0.88 (44%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Girard2:39
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Warsofsky – Barberio5:35
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard9:10
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Donskoi – Meier12:51
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Tierney – Labanc9:55
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl12:09
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Ward – Hansen – Gambrell7:30
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns16:48
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:41
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun21:09
xG 0.65–0.87 (43%)attempts 20–27goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).