Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 116 | 210 | 15 | 440 |
| DET | 112 | 17 | 116 | 04 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:51NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:58DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 4:10DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Xavier Ouellet · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 6:25NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:30NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 3:16NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:24NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:32DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:24DETAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Nelson2:44
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:35
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Wagner8:44
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nelson – Prince – Fritz8:13
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield13:09
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Davidson16:33
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Pelech – Pulock18:19
xG 0.97–1.30 (43%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou10:20
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi12:09
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Booth – Glendening – Frk8:13
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin13:41
xG 0.74–0.99 (43%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser17:27
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 25–10goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Ouellet13:26
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson16:13
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).