Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 114 | 07 | 127 |
| CGY | 36 | 312 | 113 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 4:13CGYMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 7:31CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Nicholas Shore, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 0:51VGKCody EakinUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 10:27CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Matt Stajan, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 12:02CGYSpencer FooAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
- P2 18:06CGYMark JankowskiSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–6
- P3 1:32CGYMark JankowskiPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicholas Shore · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31VGKAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:29CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:34VGKOscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:43CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P2 16:09CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 19:53VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45VGKAlex Tuch: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:33VGKColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Tatar – Lindberg3:37
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch5:09
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Reaves – Lindberg – Carrier3:13
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Carrier – Tuch3:42
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller8:09
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Miller – Theodore2:07
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Engelland – McNabb2:55
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Bennett – Foo10:27
xG 1.25–0.53 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Stajan – Lazar – Hathaway8:54
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Jankowski9:26
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Brouwer – Frolik – Shore9:22
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak12:04
xG 1.45–0.29 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Giordano – Hamilton7:57
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kulak – Andersson2:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).