Thu, Oct 4, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 115 | 29 | 333 |
| NYR | 07 | 117 | 112 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:37NYRJesper FastAssists: Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
- P3 3:28NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Colton Sissons · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:36NSHColton SissonsENGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–1
- P3 19:25NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:54NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:13NSHZac Rinaldo: Holding2 min
- P2 8:13NYRVinni Lettieri: Embellishment2 min
- P3 14:00NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 18:30NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala10:30
xG 0.73–0.55 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons5:48
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:28
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman10:51
xG 0.13–0.72 (15%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Josi2:26
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:08
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:19
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Vesey12:52
xG 0.95–0.60 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Spooner – Fast – Chytil10:08
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich13:08
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Howden – Lettieri8:01
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei15:24
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk14:25
xG 1.07–0.91 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith14:36
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).