Thu, Oct 4, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 111 | 016 | 11 | 339 |
| DET | 05 | 29 | 03 | 03 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:46DETDennis CholowskiAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:06CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 16:13DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:11CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:19DETTyler Bertuzzi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:52DETDennis Cholowski: Holding2 min
- P1 13:09CBJArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56CBJGabriel Carlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:45DETFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P3 5:41DETThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Jenner – Anderson10:50
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:49
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nash – Duclair4:16
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois10:01
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Werenski16:53
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara18:19
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Kukan8:22
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Mantha – Larkin11:07
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen6:07
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Ehn3:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Ehn – Rasmussen3:04
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHicketts – Hronek11:11
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Sulak12:17
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Cholowski16:24
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).