Thu, Oct 4, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 012 | 010 | 030 |
| DAL | 010 | 310 | 05 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21DALDevin ShoreGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:49DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jamie Benn, Connor Carrick · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 5:57DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:05ARIKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:49DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:20ARIChristian Fischer: Kneeing2 min
- P2 5:33DALBrett Ritchie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:33ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:51DALEsa Lindell: Holding2 min
- P2 9:51ARIChristian Fischer: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:18DALAlexander Radulov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Cousins5:42
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Perlini – Keller5:55
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Perlini – Crouse2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer2:19
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle8:53
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Connauton2:50
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:59
xG 0.52–0.77 (40%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin12:15
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Comeau – Janmark9:44
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Hintz7:05
xG 0.01–0.40 (2%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Shore10:56
xG 0.18–0.88 (17%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Carrick12:20
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Methot – Heiskanen13:49
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell19:20
xG 0.57–1.05 (35%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).