Thu, Oct 4, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 08 | 08 | 121 |
| COL | 114 | 118 | 28 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:29COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:26COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Patrik Nemeth · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:07COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
- P3 19:40COLJ.T. CompherENAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:51COLTyson Jost: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:51MINGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:14MINMathew Dumba: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:03COLSheldon Dries: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:49COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 5:49MINEric Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 6:38MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:50COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:13COLAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:07MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Fehr – Foligno6:36
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund4:11
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter5:18
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter7:56
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin14:19
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler11:06
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Suter – Dumba16:32
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:17
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Calvert – Compher – Dries4:21
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto8:36
xG 0.30–0.20 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost7:11
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov12:39
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard11:58
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Barrie – Girard2:24
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).