Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 116 | 08 | 015 | 04 | 0 | 143 |
| TBL | 04 | 014 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58FLAJacob MacDonaldAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 10:45TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL J.T. Miller scored
- 2. FLA Mike Hoffman stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:08TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:53FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:15FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:04TBLJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:04FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:42TBLJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:53TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25TBLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau11:11
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:16
xG 0.29–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin9:03
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Brouwer – Sceviour2:18
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson14:40
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson3:07
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Petrovic – MacDonald8:01
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestConacher – Paquette – Erne4:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli6:40
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Palat – Gourde – Point10:30
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:54
xG 0.28–0.46 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev13:23
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman13:26
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Stralman – McDonagh14:22
xG 0.61–0.77 (44%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).