Sat, Oct 6, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 26 | 114 | 529 |
| PIT | 07 | 112 | 03 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 15:56MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 3:43MTLPaul ByronAssists: Max Domi, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:05MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Paul Byron, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 17:10PITRiley SheahanAssists: Kris Letang, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 10:08MTLCharles HudonAssists: Andrew Shaw · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:59MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:25PITDominik Simon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:32MTLXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:16MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:09PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:45PITDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Domi7:24
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:15
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi5:37
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Kotkaniemi2:25
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet13:46
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete13:56
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Reilly – Juulsen17:36
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Sheahan – Sprong7:31
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 1–2
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel12:32
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin9:50
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Brassard – Rust – Simon11:36
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:33
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Oleksiak14:10
xG 0.34–0.72 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Johnson – Maatta14:47
xG 0.05–0.46 (11%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).