Sun, Oct 7, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 26 | 16 | 524 |
| CAR | 215 | 213 | 412 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:02NYRChris KreiderAssists: Brett Howden, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 9:07CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Justin Williams, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 14:14CARJordan MartinookAssists: Justin Williams, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 2:48NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Brady Skjei, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 9:25CARJordan StaalAssists: Warren Foegele, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 11:41NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Tony DeAngelo · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–3
- P2 19:29CARMicheal FerlandAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 4:26NYRChris KreiderAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
- P3 5:01CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Jordan Martinook, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–5
- P3 10:44CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Calvin de Haan · Tip-in, 0.03 xG5–6
- P3 11:31CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Justin Williams, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–7
- P3 19:29CARTeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:31NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 5:13CARMicheal Ferland: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:13NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:03CARJustin Williams: Holding2 min
- P2 10:02CARCalvin de Haan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:01NYRAlexandar Georgiev: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:00NYRTony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:00CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:18CARCalvin de Haan: Kneeing2 min
- P3 14:35NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:10NYRTony DeAngelo: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Howden2:35
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Chytil2:06
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad7:24
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Hayes – Vesey – Buchnevich6:03
xG 0.09–0.91 (9%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei12:29
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 2–2
- Staal – Shattenkirk2:10
xG 0.22–0.29 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Smith – DeAngelo11:14
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov7:28
xG 0.85–0.34 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele9:53
xG 1.00–0.56 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 2–2
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho8:44
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Necas5:47
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk11:44
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 3–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk9:14
xG 0.77–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- de Haan – Pesce2:59
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).