Mon, Oct 8, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 114 | 112 | 237 |
| BUF | 110 | 35 | 02 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:31BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:58BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:48VGKErik HaulaAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:15BUFMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 9:43BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Zemgus Girgensons · Slap, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 10:47VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:54VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:45VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:20BUFCasey Nelson: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:36BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:36
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Reaves – Lindberg – Carpenter3:53
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek2:48
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Carpenter – Nosek5:39
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller16:11
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Theodore2:58
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill14:14
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Eichel11:51
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Okposo – Berglund – Skinner11:44
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Rodrigues9:48
xG 0.35–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt2:08
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Nelson2:02
xG 0.04–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson11:28
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Dahlin14:36
xG 0.43–0.52 (46%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).