Tue, Oct 9, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 8, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 423 | 18 | 317 | 848 |
| PHI | 011 | 110 | 112 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17SJSLogan CoutureUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:28SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P1 12:21SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 16:42SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Justin Braun, Joonas Donskoi · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 4:56PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 14:46SJSEvander KaneAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 3:27SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.49 xG6–1
- P3 15:21SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG7–1
- P3 18:01SJSBarclay GoodrowSHAssists: Marcus Sorensen · Snap, 0.24 xG8–1
- P3 18:29PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG8–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:06PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:33SJSTimo Meier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:47PHIMikhail Vorobyev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:14SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:40PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 0:31SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:19PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:13SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:00SJSBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Sorensen – Suomela9:15
xG 2.08–0.09 (96%)attempts 22–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Labanc9:43
xG 1.09–0.75 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier7:12
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier7:46
xG 0.12–0.64 (16%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson13:12
xG 1.86–0.65 (74%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Burns – Ryan9:54
xG 1.42–0.38 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Braun – Dillon11:33
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Lindblom – Konecny – Patrick9:07
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Laughton – Raffl8:14
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Vorobyev7:45
xG 0.05–0.71 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier10:10
xG 0.68–2.24 (23%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg11:55
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov12:32
xG 0.64–1.00 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Sanheim9:07
xG 0.26–1.25 (17%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).