Tue, Oct 9, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 211 | 05 | 325 |
| CAR | 310 | 113 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43CARJordan StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 6:12VANSven BaertschiAssists: Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 11:17CARBrett PesceAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 17:51CARSebastian AhoAssists: Micheal Ferland, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 0:46VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 1:54CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P2 3:24VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 13:48CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Justin Williams, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:12CARWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:02CARMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:13CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:21VANJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:21CARJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12VANDerrick Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P2 16:22CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Interference2 min
- P3 18:24VANAlexander Edler: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Granlund – Schaller9:31
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sutter – Baertschi – Virtanen4:03
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson5:51
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Baertschi – Horvat3:02
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pouliot – Stecher8:40
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton5:46
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev15:34
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov9:41
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho11:23
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele11:35
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:32
xG 0.01–0.01 (58%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:20
xG 1.10–0.60 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Pesce – Fleury12:57
xG 1.04–0.56 (65%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- de Haan – Faulk14:41
xG 0.18–0.40 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).