Tue, Oct 9, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 38 | 210 | 730 |
| DAL | 110 | 215 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:40TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 17:23DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:58TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:04DALTyler SeguinAssists: Esa Lindell, Ben Bishop · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 11:59TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 16:00TORRon HainseyAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Par Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 17:00TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P2 18:02DALJamie BennPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 2:39DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 4:55TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 16:40TORConnor BrownENAssists: Morgan Rielly, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.77 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:20DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:26DALMiro Heiskanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:35DALRoope Hintz: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner14:04
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier9:32
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews14:07
xG 0.89–0.94 (49%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Kadri – Brown – Lindholm10:25
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov14:59
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:35
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 24–17goals 1–2
- Dermott – Zaitsev2:03
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Faksa – Shore12:35
xG 1.05–0.41 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Comeau – Janmark10:52
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:06
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 3–2
- Ritchie – Nichushkin – Hintz8:55
xG 0.08–0.79 (9%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Heiskanen12:54
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Carrick – Heiskanen2:39
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Carrick7:45
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).