Wed, Oct 10, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 116 | 110 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 339 |
| ANA | 113 | 16 | 05 | 01 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:33ARIDylan StromePPAssists: Clayton Keller, Richard Panik · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:24ARIBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Michael Grabner, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:39ANABen StreetAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Cousins scored
- 3. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 4. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 5. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:44ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:19ANAAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:54ARIDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min
- P3 8:25ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:13ARIBrendan Perlini: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Cousins10:45
xG 0.88–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kempe – Strome – Crouse4:40
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Fischer – Strome – Keller5:19
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Stepan – Panik – Hinostroza13:34
xG 0.77–0.91 (46%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Lyubushkin14:39
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton14:22
xG 0.82–0.47 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:15
xG 0.53–0.80 (40%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Sherwood5:37
xG 0.85–0.27 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Comtois9:20
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Street – Rowney – Lundeström6:59
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Rowney4:22
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour17:04
xG 1.06–0.39 (73%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Fowler – Manson16:14
xG 0.65–0.93 (41%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
- Sustr – Pettersson10:44
xG 0.21–0.82 (20%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).