Thu, Oct 11, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 6, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 311 | 18 | 211 | 630 |
| BUF | 011 | 112 | 08 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:55COLTyson JostPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:20COLColin WilsonPPGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.32 xG2–0
- P1 16:30COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 17:05BUFNathan BeaulieuAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 17:33COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 15:23COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 17:01COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:16BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:24BUFCarter Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:17COLColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:02COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:23BUFNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35COLAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12COLVladislav Kamenev: Interference2 min
- P2 14:35COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:58BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:33COLMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:49COLAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Jost8:50
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto7:44
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Calvert – Compher – Kamenev5:35
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:16
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard7:46
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie9:34
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Eichel8:43
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Skinner – Thompson – Mittelstadt5:21
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Berglund – Skinner4:38
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Thompson – Mittelstadt2:32
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNelson – Dahlin2:18
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen10:40
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Beaulieu – McCabe2:24
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).