Thu, Oct 11, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 117 | 116 | 010 | 00 | 243 |
| NYR | 16 | 09 | 111 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31SJSMarcus SorensenSHAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:52NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:59SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Antti Suomela, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 17:21NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:37NYRBrady SkjeiGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:07SJSEvander Kane: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 8:49NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P1 13:52SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 17:04SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:04NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:30NYRTony DeAngelo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Labanc10:39
xG 1.07–0.24 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Sorensen – Suomela8:18
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier5:43
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier8:36
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan9:30
xG 1.07–0.59 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Karlsson14:12
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Burns – Braun5:45
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Lettieri – Chytil7:10
xG 0.53–0.42 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:47
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Howden9:14
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Spooner – Hayes – Vesey9:08
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – DeAngelo3:00
xG 0.00–0.27 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Claesson13:49
xG 0.64–0.94 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Skjei14:17
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).