Thu, Oct 11, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 116 | 010 | 111 | 237 |
| PIT | 19 | 39 | 04 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28VGKTomas NosekAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:03PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:37PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 15:43PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 16:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 13:35VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:40PITDominik Simon: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:34VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:56PITDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare10:34
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:41
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Eakin – Hyka – Carpenter10:37
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Haula – Nosek11:19
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – McNabb4:31
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Holden – Merrill11:58
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore16:02
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 27–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Brassard – Simon8:18
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin13:32
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 3–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel4:21
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Rust – Simon3:55
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:40
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Riikola16:09
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Johnson – Schultz14:37
xG 0.47–0.81 (37%)attempts 6–22goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).