Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 120 | 116 | 218 | 13 | 557 |
| MIN | 15 | 04 | 314 | 00 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 16:09MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 15:13CARBrett PesceAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 1:20MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:41MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:22CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 15:47MINMikael GranlundAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 18:51CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 2:57CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 9:02MINJT Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 9:44MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:30CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:11MINCharlie Coyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:29CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:29MINJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:39MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:34CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:53MINJason Zucker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:12CARLucas Wallmark: Holding2 min
- P3 4:50CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26MINNick Seeler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:24MINMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:40CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:01CARCalvin de Haan: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:23MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Foegele9:15
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov6:43
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho9:50
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:13
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – van Riemsdyk11:07
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin12:22
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- de Haan – Faulk8:50
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Greenway9:05
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Foligno – Brown3:58
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Coyle – Niederreiter7:04
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund7:50
xG 0.13–0.55 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Seeler9:13
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba11:53
xG 0.28–0.55 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin12:15
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).