Sat, Oct 13, 2018·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 112 | 212 | 04 | 338 |
| CHI | 223 | 016 | 16 | 15 | 450 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Brandon Saad, Dominik Kahun · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 16:01CHIPatrick KanePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 12:35STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Schmaltz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 1:44STLDavid PerronPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:47STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 13:06CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:51CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:51STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P1 13:04STLJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:56STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09CHINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:51CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:45CHIAlex DeBrincat: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49CHIJan Rutta: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schenn – Blais8:29
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – O'Reilly – Tarasenko10:13
xG 0.22–0.75 (22%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou7:24
xG 0.09–0.94 (8%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko14:24
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Schmaltz4:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Schmaltz6:17
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Schmaltz – Fortin13:16
xG 1.36–0.76 (64%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:36
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Kruger – Saad – Kampf5:03
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Hayden7:52
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson13:46
xG 1.14–0.45 (72%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Manning – Rutta10:22
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju15:08
xG 1.06–0.77 (58%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).