Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Buffalo Sabres 3, Arizona Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27 | 011 | 15 | 323 |
| ARI | 014 | 09 | 013 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:06BUFConor ShearyPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 16:29BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:36BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:55ARIChristian Fischer: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:04BUFSam Reinhart: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:13ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P3 2:42BUFKyle Okposo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:44ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:11BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:11ARIKevin Connauton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt9:13
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Rodrigues6:41
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel13:07
xG 0.54–0.70 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Thompson9:09
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Dahlin11:12
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Dahlin2:37
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson11:31
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Keller13:33
xG 0.99–0.57 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Fischer – Strome – Crouse7:21
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Cousins7:59
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Kempe – Hinostroza – Perlini8:02
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Connauton14:44
xG 1.02–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson12:14
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson4:48
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).