Mon, Oct 15, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 09 | 015 | 138 |
| OTT | 09 | 17 | 38 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:53DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 19:40OTTMaxime LajoieAssists: Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:27OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:12OTTMikkel BoedkerAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:23OTTZack SmithENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:49DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:13OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:52OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:27OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin4:18
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Benn – Seguin8:21
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Nichushkin7:31
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Shore – Dickinson6:35
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carrick – Heiskanen15:28
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Methot – Honka9:33
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Klingberg – Lindell15:54
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Tierney – Tkachuk4:38
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Boedker – Duchene – White6:59
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Duchene2:18
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Ryan – Paajarvi – Tierney2:54
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot7:09
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Wideman – Chabot7:25
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Jaros – Lajoie8:16
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).