Tue, Oct 16, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 114 | 014 | 240 |
| TBL | 18 | 113 | 26 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25CARMicheal FerlandAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:42TBLTyler JohnsonSHAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:07TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Adam Erne, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:48CARMartin NecasAssists: Warren Foegele, Valentin Zykov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:02TBLYanni GourdePPGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 18:04TBLTyler JohnsonENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:55TBLAdam Erne: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:37TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P2 0:26TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:38TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:55CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:59
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho13:34
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov9:42
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- McGinn – Zykov – Necas5:10
xG 0.01–0.33 (4%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk12:30
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Slavin14:38
xG 0.50–0.76 (40%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk12:20
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Paquette – Erne6:49
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Gourde – Point9:05
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov13:06
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:08
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev13:04
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh15:37
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman15:00
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).