Tue, Oct 16, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 012 | 310 | 11 | 535 |
| WPG | 314 | 111 | 08 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:47WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 12:49EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 13:11WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 1:02WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Patrik Laine, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 0:18EDMTy RattieAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 2:28EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 13:39EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 1:25EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:50WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:09EDMTy Rattie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:19EDMMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:41WPGAndrew Copp: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:22EDMMilan Lucic: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:38
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Rieder – Khaira6:23
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Puljujarvi – Caggiula5:34
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Lucic – Strome – Yamamoto4:32
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:06
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Garrison – Benning8:35
xG 0.87–0.62 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
- Russell – Nurse20:21
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:03
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine13:19
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lemieux – Roslovic5:13
xG 0.02–0.46 (5%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev13:05
xG 0.48–0.95 (34%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrow17:46
xG 0.98–0.60 (62%)attempts 21–20goals 2–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:04
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Chiarot13:37
xG 0.16–1.00 (14%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).