Tue, Oct 16, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Buffalo Sabres 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 011 | 111 | 127 |
| VGK | 112 | 111 | 26 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:59VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 2:08VGKCody EakinSHGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 10:40VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 19:23BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 19:47VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:45VGKTomas Hyka: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:20BUFMarco Scandella: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07VGKNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:13BUFJason Pominville: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:34VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 12:35BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Interference2 min
- P3 4:36VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P3 7:46VGKErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:20VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt8:20
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Rodrigues5:51
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel10:30
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Girgensons2:20
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – McCabe2:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Beaulieu12:38
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen11:59
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:16
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:43
xG 0.71–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Haula – Hyka6:58
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek6:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Hunt8:51
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miller12:09
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Theodore2:06
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).