Wed, Oct 17, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 03 | 111 | 111 | 225 |
| MTL | 110 | 17 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:21STLVince DunnPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:42MTLMike ReillyPPAssists: Charles Hudon, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 16:31STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Alexander Steen, David Perron · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:49MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:56STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56MTLJordie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:23STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P2 0:23STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:03MTLCharles Hudon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:25STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:18STLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:10MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38MTLCharles Hudon: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:15MTLMatthew Peca: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Maroon – Bozak5:15
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Schwartz2:15
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz7:30
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sanford – Barbashev – Blais6:50
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo8:41
xG 0.59–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Schmaltz2:39
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dunn3:58
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:13
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Peca – Hudon4:52
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:51
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi10:45
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet8:37
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ouellet – Juulsen2:42
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner12:12
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).