Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 07 | 19 | 221 |
| PHI | 17 | 15 | 39 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Miles Wood · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:41PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Travis Sanheim, Jordan Weal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:56PHINolan PatrickAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 2:25NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Will Butcher, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 16:50PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:55PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–4
- P3 19:36PHIScott LaughtonENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:45PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:17NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:07NJDKevin Rooney: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:01NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 1:28NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:43NJDBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:43PHIJordan Weal: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:08PHIJordan Weal: Interference2 min
- P2 13:55NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min
- P3 1:51PHIJordan Weal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Stafford – Rooney5:57
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Zacha5:21
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Noesen – Dea5:46
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier6:47
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson9:42
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Butcher2:52
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Butcher – Mueller3:30
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lindblom – Konecny8:25
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier11:54
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Raffl6:48
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Patrick11:57
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Folin12:39
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg3:21
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim9:09
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).