Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 116 | 011 | 218 | 345 |
| WPG | 16 | 216 | 210 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37ARIChristian FischerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:16WPGAdam LowryAssists: Josh Morrissey, Jacob Trouba · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:28WPGTyler MyersAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:34WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 3:50ARIClayton KellerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 5:36WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 11:53ARIClayton KellerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:18WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Kyle Connor, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:24WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:53WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:24ARILawson Crouse: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:24WPGMark Scheifele: Interference2 min
- P2 2:16WPGTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:07ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:47ARIDylan Strome: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25ARINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Perlini – Fischer7:12
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stepan – Crouse – Keller10:50
xG 0.49–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Panik – Archibald – Strome4:58
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza6:48
xG 0.18–0.65 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle2:00
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson12:43
xG 1.06–0.83 (56%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Connauton – Oesterle10:38
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev9:34
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lemieux – Roslovic5:34
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine7:41
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:39
xG 0.19–0.85 (18%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey12:10
xG 1.06–0.80 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:03
xG 0.06–0.53 (10%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrow12:19
xG 0.40–1.15 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).