Sat, Oct 20, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 5, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 313 | 15 | 526 |
| LAK | 09 | 03 | 18 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 3:31BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:52BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Marco Scandella, Jason Pominville · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 19:45BUFZach BogosianAssists: Johan Larsson, Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 12:16LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 19:35BUFJeff SkinnerENAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:17LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P1 5:25BUFMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:02BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:53LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:27LAKDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:27BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:09LAKNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:09BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:09BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel10:37
xG 1.10–0.34 (77%)attempts 16–12goals 3–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons10:36
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:43
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Sheary – Reinhart8:28
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen15:20
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Nelson – Dahlin12:49
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella9:58
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Carter – Rempal10:52
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – Pearson – Kempe5:47
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo10:35
xG 0.29–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner4:51
xG 0.01–0.12 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Fantenberg4:19
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Forbort – Fantenberg2:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty5:24
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).