Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 315 | 04 | 07 | 01 | 327 |
| OTT | 113 | 29 | 08 | 14 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40MTLMax DomiPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:05MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 7:14OTTMark StoneAssists: Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 16:07MTLPaul ByronAssists: Joel Armia, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 9:41OTTMikkel BoedkerAssists: Colin White · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 12:01OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 2:30OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:24OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:56OTTChris Wideman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:34MTLBrendan Gallagher: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:39MTLNoah Juulsen: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:23MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20OTTChristian Jaros: Holding2 min
- P3 10:29MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:34
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:09
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw6:39
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi11:30
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet11:59
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Petry – Ouellet2:37
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Juulsen14:08
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Dzingel – Tierney8:39
xG 0.72–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Boedker – Duchene – White7:29
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Duchene2:03
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi8:12
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot6:36
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Harpur – Lajoie5:40
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie8:01
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).