Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 316 | 08 | 14 | 03 | 431 |
| MIN | 19 | 113 | 211 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Anton Stralman, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:50TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
- P1 13:23MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 15:15TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 3:49MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Eric Fehr, JT Brown · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 10:45MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- P3 13:13MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 15:02TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 3:43MINMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Alex Stalock · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:17MINJT Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:21MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39MINEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25MINEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:48MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:48TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:25TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:04MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P3 8:42TBLBrayden Point: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Gourde – Point8:40
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov7:03
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:07
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point2:29
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman11:40
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:32
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Stralman – McDonagh15:48
xG 0.48–1.17 (29%)attempts 13–20goals 2–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund12:47
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Read10:09
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown4:42
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Greenway9:01
xG 0.02–0.63 (3%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Seeler11:56
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Suter – Dumba15:22
xG 0.78–0.65 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:50
xG 0.93–0.92 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).