Sun, Oct 21, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 333 | 210 | 655 |
| CHI | 117 | 06 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:40CHIAlexandre FortinAssists: Jan Rutta, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:22TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 12:07TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 14:01TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 10:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Dan Girardi, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 15:17CHIDavid KampfAssists: Jan Rutta, Brandon Davidson · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 16:12CHINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:55TBLRyan CallahanENAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.51 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Holding2 min
- P1 17:34TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 4:44CHICam Ward: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:32CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:49CHIAndreas Martinsen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:17TBLLouis Domingue: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:39
xG 0.96–0.15 (87%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli6:02
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Gourde – Point8:51
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette6:48
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh12:41
xG 1.60–0.71 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev11:54
xG 1.06–0.17 (86%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Girardi – Hedman10:27
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Saad – Kampf7:02
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Kane – Kruger – Fortin2:10
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Martinsen – Fortin6:36
xG 0.22–0.68 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz8:02
xG 0.24–0.94 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Rutta3:14
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson8:54
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Davidson – Rutta11:08
xG 0.66–0.87 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).