Mon, Oct 22, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 19 | 210 | 433 |
| PHI | 011 | 013 | 114 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 14:54COLMatt NietoGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 2:25COLGabriel LandeskogUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 3:26PHINolan PatrickAssists: Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:45COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:08PHIJordan Weal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:24PHIChristian Folin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:17COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:32COLMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto10:29
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Bourque – Dano – Jost6:06
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:28
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Andrighetto9:10
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov12:49
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Barrie – Girard2:25
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie13:34
xG 0.48–0.82 (37%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Laughton – Patrick7:26
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Weal – Lindblom – Konecny5:13
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Raffl4:36
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier12:43
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Folin7:35
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim12:17
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov5:49
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).