Tue, Oct 23, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 212 | 012 | 233 |
| DAL | 18 | 213 | 12 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14DALBlake ComeauAssists: Jason Dickinson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 8:59DALJason SpezzaAssists: Justin Dowling, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 14:04LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:26DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 17:09LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 4:23DALTyler PitlickPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:23DALJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:23LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:56DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:33LAKIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:25LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Clifford – Amadio6:08
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Pearson – Kempe6:55
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo12:19
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Rempal8:58
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez17:04
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Doughty4:13
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Walker10:00
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Pitlick – Seguin8:29
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark9:39
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Dowling – Shore3:55
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Shore – Dickinson2:16
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen2:07
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Methot – Heiskanen10:47
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell17:05
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).