Thu, Oct 25, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 14 | 322 |
| BUF | 013 | 214 | 215 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:22BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:08MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Xavier Ouellet · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:42BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 6:34MTLMax DomiAssists: Jeff Petry, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 13:07BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe, Conor Sheary · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:59BUFKyle OkposoPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:27BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 1:08MTLJordie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:34MTLAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:05MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:41MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:23
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi13:11
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw7:04
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi11:41
xG 0.12–0.57 (18%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn13:28
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Ouellet – Mete15:06
xG 0.37–0.77 (33%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Reilly – Juulsen14:52
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Sheary – Reinhart12:13
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons11:19
xG 0.66–0.35 (66%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt9:10
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel12:40
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen19:06
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:03
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nelson – Dahlin10:53
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).