Fri, Oct 26, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Ottawa Senators 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 17 | 04 | 324 |
| COL | 011 | 212 | 414 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Thomas Chabot, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:27OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Cody Ceci, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 10:20COLSamuel GirardAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:32OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Colin White · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 14:32COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:00COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Matt Calvert, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 6:14COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 8:38COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 15:33COLMatt NietoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:36COLAlexander Kerfoot: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:59OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:45COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:23OTTRyan Dzingel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Stone – Dzingel – Tierney8:03
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Boedker – Duchene – White9:30
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Ryan – Dzingel – Formenton2:48
xG 0.02–0.14 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Formenton5:04
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Jaros10:17
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Wideman – Chabot2:22
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lajoie15:29
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen17:17
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Dano4:54
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Andrighetto4:07
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto10:11
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie15:43
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 28–11goals 3–1
- Johnson – Girard15:33
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Zadorov13:03
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).