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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 26, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver

Ottawa Senators 3, Colorado Avalanche 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.

COL winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:20Shot by Soderberg, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 1:55Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 2:24Shot by Cole, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 2:32Shot by Wilson, saved by Anderson
  6. P1 2:42Goal by Dzingel (Chabot, Tierney)+17 pts WP

    On ice: COL Wilson, Nemeth, Zadorov, Kamenev, Jost · OTT Stone, Dzingel, DeMelo, Tierney, Chabot

  7. P1 2:48Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 3:04Shot by DeMelo, saved by Grubauer
  9. P1 3:19Shot by Jaros, saved by Grubauer
  10. P1 3:43Shot by Boedker, saved by Grubauer
  11. P1 4:35Shot by Smith, saved by Grubauer
  12. P1 5:41Shot by Tierney, saved by Grubauer
  13. P1 5:56Shot by Ceci, saved by Grubauer
  14. P1 7:37Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  15. P1 8:05Shot by Soderberg, saved by Anderson
  16. P1 9:12Shot by Jaros, saved by Grubauer
  17. P1 9:22Shot by Paajarvi, saved by Grubauer
  18. P1 9:34Shot by Paajarvi, saved by Grubauer
  19. P1 10:27Goal by Duchene (Ceci, White)+14 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Johnson, Calvert, Nieto, Girard · OTT Boedker, Duchene, Ceci, White, Lajoie

  20. P1 10:56Shot by Lajoie, saved by Grubauer
  21. P1 11:58Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  22. P1 12:36Kerfoot: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: COL Cole, Dano, Kamenev, Jost, Girard · OTT Duchene, Paajarvi, McCormick, DeMelo, Chabot

  23. P1 12:43Shot by Lajoie, saved by Grubauer4v5
  24. P1 13:21Shot by Soderberg, saved by Anderson4v5
  25. P1 16:43Shot by Cole, saved by Anderson
  26. P1 19:43Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Anderson
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:21Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Anderson
  30. P2 1:15Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Anderson
  31. P2 1:25Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  32. P2 3:47Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  33. P2 5:22Shot by Zadorov, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 7:30Shot by Formenton, saved by Grubauer
  35. P2 9:35Shot by Ryan, saved by Grubauer
  36. P2 10:20Goal by Girard (Landeskog, Johnson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · OTT Stone, Dzingel, DeMelo, Tierney, Chabot

  37. P2 10:32Goal by Duchene (White)+16 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Cole, Calvert, Barrie, Nieto · OTT Boedker, Duchene, Wideman, White, Jaros

  38. P2 12:14Shot by Stone, saved by Grubauer
  39. P2 12:21Shot by Ryan, saved by Grubauer
  40. P2 12:59Ryan: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · OTT Ryan, Pyatt, Wideman, Dzingel, Jaros

  41. P2 13:06Shot by Ceci, saved by Grubauer5v4
  42. P2 13:42Shot by Rantanen, saved by Anderson5v4
  43. P2 14:32Goal by Rantanen (MacKinnon, Barrie)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: COL Barrie, Landeskog, Andrighetto, MacKinnon, Rantanen · OTT Pyatt, DeMelo, Jaros, Formenton

  44. P2 17:56Shot by Paajarvi, saved by Grubauer
  45. P2 18:35Shot by Wilson, saved by Anderson
  46. P2 18:41Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  47. P2 19:04Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Anderson
  48. P2 19:04Chabot: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · OTT Paajarvi, Stone, DeMelo, Tierney, Chabot

  49. P2 19:49Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson5v4
  50. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 0:41Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson5v4
  53. P3 0:59Shot by Calvert, saved by Anderson5v4
  54. P3 1:00Goal by Soderberg (Calvert, Barrie)5v4+26 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Johnson, Calvert, Nieto, Girard · OTT Stone, DeMelo, Tierney, Jaros

  55. P3 1:33Shot by Dzingel, saved by Grubauer
  56. P3 3:52Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Anderson
  57. P3 4:03Shot by Landeskog, saved by Anderson
  58. P3 4:31Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Anderson
  59. P3 5:15Shot by Formenton, saved by Grubauer
  60. P3 6:08Shot by Jaros, saved by Grubauer
  61. P3 6:14Goal by Landeskog (Rantanen, Barrie)+31 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cole, Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen · OTT Boedker, Duchene, White, Jaros, Lajoie

  62. P3 7:01Shot by Nieto, saved by Anderson
  63. P3 8:38Goal by MacKinnon (Landeskog, Rantanen)+13 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cole, Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen · OTT Duchene, Dzingel, Ceci, White, Lajoie

  64. P3 9:45Johnson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johnson, Cole, Wilson, Kerfoot, Andrighetto · OTT Ryan, Wideman, White, Jaros, Formenton

  65. P3 12:23Shot by Girard, saved by Anderson
  66. P3 15:23Shot by Pyatt, saved by Grubauer
  67. P3 15:33Goal by Nieto (MacKinnon, Rantanen)+1 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cole, Barrie, Nieto, MacKinnon, Rantanen · OTT Pyatt, Paajarvi, Wideman, McCormick, Chabot

  68. P3 17:21Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  69. P3 18:23Dzingel: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: COL Cole, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · OTT Ryan, Wideman, Dzingel, DeMelo, Formenton

  70. P3 18:35Shot by Wilson, saved by Anderson5v4
  71. P3 19:01Shot by Wilson, saved by Anderson5v4
  72. P3 0:00Period end5v4
  73. P3 0:00Final5v4