Tue, Oct 30, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 016 | 19 | 12 | 238 |
| BUF | 111 | 011 | 05 | 02 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:30BUFJack EichelAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 19:04CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 2:40CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:23BUFNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:47BUFConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:48CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:00BUFConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:07BUFJack Eichel: Elbowing2 min
- P3 7:22BUFZach Bogosian: Charging2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:35
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Neal – Backlund – Tkachuk7:50
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bennett – Ryan – Dube2:22
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk4:06
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:56
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson8:32
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Välimäki6:47
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel13:45
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt9:32
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Thompson9:13
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:17
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Nelson10:41
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin6:30
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella9:30
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).